Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Afghanistan, January 2020-November 2021.

Wild poliovirus types 2 and 3 were declared eradicated in 2015 and 2019, respectively, and, since 2017, transmission of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) has been detected only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In 2020, these countries reported their highest number of WPV1 cases since 2014 and experienced outbreaks of type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2)* (1); in Afghanistan, the number of WPV1 cases reported increased 93%, from 29 in 2019 to 56 in 2020, with 308 cVDPV2 cases reported. This report describes the activities and progress toward polio eradication in Afghanistan during January 2020-November 2021 and updates previous reports (2-4). Despite restrictions imposed by antigovernment elements since 2018, disruption of polio eradication efforts by the COVID-19 pandemic, and civil and political instability, eradication activities have resumed. During January-November 2021, four WPV1 cases and 43 cVDPV2 cases were detected, representing decreases of 93% from 56 and 85% from 281, respectively, during the same period in 2020. After the assumption of nationwide control by the current de facto government of Afghanistan during August 2021, health officials committed to oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) campaigns nationwide, with the potential to vaccinate approximately 2.5 million children against poliovirus who were previously not accessible for ≥2 years. Although challenges remain, vigorous, sustained polio eradication efforts in Afghanistan could result in substantial progress toward eradication during 2022-2023.

[Polio Environmental Surveillance and Its Application to SARS-CoV-2 Detection].

The polio eradication program, launched in 1988, has successfully decreased the number of poliomyelitis patients worldwide. However, in areas with immunization gaps where oral polio vaccine coverage has dropped, outbreaks of more virulent vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) have become a threat to public health. In Japan, inactivated polio vaccine replaced oral polio vaccine as the routine immunization in 2012. Polio environmental surveillance (ES) has been conducted nationwide since 2013 to efficiently monitor the wild type poliovirus or VDPV, which may be imported from overseas. ES may also be utilized to detect other viruses in stool samples. We propose a method of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detection based on the polio ES network, and establish a procedure to detect fragments of SARS-CoV-2 genome in wastewater solids. Our findings suggest that polio ES can be used to simultaneously monitor SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in sewage waters.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Pakistan, January 2020-July 2021.

When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative began in 1988, wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission was occurring in 125 countries; currently, only WPV type 1 (WPV1) transmission continues, and as of August 2021, WPV1 transmission persists in only two countries (1,2). This report describes Pakistan's progress toward polio eradication during January 2020-July 2021 and updates previous reports (3,4). In 2020, Pakistan reported 84 WPV1 cases, a 43% reduction from 2019; as of August 25, 2021, Pakistan has reported one WPV1 case in 2021. Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) emerges as a result of attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) virus regaining neurovirulence after prolonged circulation in underimmunized populations and can lead to paralysis. In 2019, 22 cases of cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) were reported in Pakistan, 135 cases were reported in 2020, and eight cases have been reported as of August 25, 2021. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, planned supplementary immunization activities (SIAs)* were suspended during mid-March-June 2020 (3,5). Seven SIAs were implemented during July 2020-July 2021 without substantial decreases in SIA quality. Improving the quality of polio SIAs, vaccinating immigrants from Afghanistan, and implementing changes to enhance program accountability and performance would help the Pakistan polio program achieve its goal of interrupting WPV1 transmission by the end of 2022.

Hypothetical emergence of poliovirus in 2020: part 1. Consequences of policy decisions to respond using nonpharmaceutical interventions.

OBJECTIVES: As efforts to control COVID-19 continue, we simulate hypothetical emergence of wild poliovirus assuming an immunologically naïve population. This differs from the current global experience with polio and serves as a model for responding to future pandemics. METHODS: Applying an established global model, we assume a fully susceptible global population to polioviruses, independently introduce a virus with properties of each of the three stable wild poliovirus serotypes, and explore the impact of strategies that range from doing nothing to seeking global containment and eradication. RESULTS: We show the dynamics of paralytic cases as the virus spreads globally. We demonstrate the difficulty of eradication unless aggressive efforts begin soon after initial disease detection. Different poliovirus serotypes lead to different trajectories and burdens of disease. In the absence of aggressive measures, the virus would become globally endemic in 2-10 years, and cumulative paralytic cases would exceed 4-40 million depending on serotype, with the burden of disease shifting to younger ages. CONCLUSIONS: The opportunity to eradicate emerging infections represents an important public policy choice. If the world first observed the emergence of wild poliovirus in 2020, adopting aggressive control strategies would have been required to prevent a devastating global pandemic.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Poliovirus Surveillance.

On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (1). On March 24, 2020, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) suspended all polio supplementary immunization activities and recommended the continuation of polio surveillance (2). In April 2020, GPEI shared revised polio surveillance guidelines in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which focused on reducing the risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, to health care workers and communities by modifying activities that required person-to-person contact, improving hand hygiene and personal protective equipment use practices, and overcoming challenges related to movement restrictions, while continuing essential polio surveillance functions (3). GPEI assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on polio surveillance by comparing data from January to September 2019 to the same period in 2020. Globally, the number of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases reported declined 33% and the mean number of days between the second stool collected and receipt by the laboratory increased by 70%. Continued analysis of AFP case reporting and stool collection is critical to ensure timely detection and response to interruptions of polio surveillance.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Afghanistan, January 2019-July 2020.

Wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) transmission is ongoing only in Afghanistan and Pakistan (1). Following a decline in case numbers during 2013-2016, the number of cases in Afghanistan has increased each year during 2017-2020. This report describes polio eradication activities and progress toward polio eradication in Afghanistan during January 2019-July 2020 and updates previous reports (2,3). Since April 2018, insurgent groups have imposed bans on house-to-house vaccination. In September 2019, vaccination campaigns in areas under insurgency control were restarted only at health facilities. In addition, during March-June 2020, all campaigns were paused because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The number of WPV1 cases reported in Afghanistan increased from 21 in 2018 to 29 in 2019. During January-July 2020, 41 WPV1 cases were reported as of August 29, 2020 (compared with 15 during January-July 2019); in addition, 69 cases of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), and one case of ambiguous vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (aVDPV2) (isolates with no evidence of person-to-person transmission or from persons with no known immunodeficiency) were detected. Dialogue with insurgency leaders through nongovernmental and international organizations is ongoing in an effort to recommence house-to-house campaigns, which are essential to stopping WPV1 transmission in Afghanistan. To increase community demand for polio vaccination, additional community health needs should be addressed, and polio vaccination should be integrated with humanitarian services.